Fiscal Policy

Analysis of government spending, debt dynamics, tariff policy, and fiscal sustainability impacting markets and the macro outlook.

Weekly SitRep

Oil Just Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

Jul 27, 2026

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9 min read

Oil Just Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

A reflation regime twelve weeks old, a front end at a seventeen-month high, and a tariff schedule that just became permanent.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

The College Degree Just Became a Bad Trade

Jul 25, 2026

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17 min read

The College Degree Just Became a Bad Trade

The same credential now sorts households into winners and wealth transfers.

Weekly SitRep

Consumer Prices Just Fell. The Fed Still Wants Hikes.

Jul 20, 2026

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6 min read

Consumer Prices Just Fell. The Fed Still Wants Hikes.

A reflation regime eleven weeks old, a runner-up that just flipped to disinflation, and a 30-year yield through 5 percent.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Jul 13, 2026

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6 min read

Stocks Now Cost 191% of The Economy

A regime nine weeks old, a 30-year yield walking toward 5 percent, and a valuation with no cushion left.

Debyn Benjamin

Inflation

The End of Cheap: Why the Price Level Is Not Coming Back

Jul 11, 2026

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11 min read

The End of Cheap: Why the Price Level Is Not Coming Back

The 25-Year Disinflation Reversal, the Tariff Floor, and the Fiscal Trap That Ties the Fed's Hands

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Jul 6, 2026

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9 min read

Hiring just fell to 57,000

A labor market that just stumbled, an inflation backdrop that hasn't, and a market setting records while it buys protection.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Jun 29, 2026

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9 min read

Inflation just hit 4.1%

A hot PCE print, a fraying oil truce, and the AI memory tax reaching consumers.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

Jun 20, 2026

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24 min read

The Ceasefire Doesn't End the Squeeze

How a 60-day diplomatic clock, a 120-day SPR delivery window, and OECD inventories at multi-decade lows converge on the same week

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Jun 15, 2026

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7 min read

The Strait Reopens. Inflation Stays.

The market booked relief the physical market can't deliver for months.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

Jun 13, 2026

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13 min read

Europe's Central Bank Is Cornered

Energy-driven inflation, a contracting economy, and the oil floor that stops the ECB from waiting it out

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Jun 8, 2026

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7 min read

A Nine-Week Win Streak Just Snapped.

Payrolls doubled the forecast, and the curve flipped to a hike by December.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

Jun 6, 2026

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22 min read

Japan Just Broke the Global Bond Market

The Record 30-Year JGB, the $1.24 Trillion Repatriation Bid, and the Global Long-End Repricing

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Jun 1, 2026

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6 min read

Stocks No Longer Beat Bonds.

First negative equity risk premium since the dot-com era, and insiders kept selling.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

May 29, 2026

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19 min read

Why Bond Yields Aren't Falling

Europe just committed €800 billion to rearm. Bond markets noticed.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

May 25, 2026

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8 min read

Hormuz Memo. Two Regime Exits.

Hottest PCE on record. One page in Pakistan decides Q3.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

The Petrodollar Myth: Why the Dollar Doesn’t Need Oil Anymore

May 23, 2026

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25 min read

The Petrodollar Myth: Why the Dollar Doesn’t Need Oil Anymore

The Real Moats Hiding in Plain Sight, the Russia Stress Test, and Where the Dollar Actually Breaks

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

May 18, 2026

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9 min read

Fed Says Hold. Curve Says Hike.

Inflation at all-time highs. Warsh just took the chair.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

May 16, 2026

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15 min read

How Oil Shocks Reach Your Portfolio

The buffers are expiring. Stage 2 starts now.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Bonds Are Pricing Hikes. Stocks Are Pricing Perfection.

May 11, 2026

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8 min read

Bonds Are Pricing Hikes. Stocks Are Pricing Perfection.

Reflation at 88%. The most decisive regime call since the system went live.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

The Petrodollar Reset — How the Gulf Chose Dollar Deepening Over Yuan Settlement

May 9, 2026

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23 min read

The Petrodollar Reset — How the Gulf Chose Dollar Deepening Over Yuan Settlement

China lost a 10-year bet

Debyn Benjamin

Macroeconomics

May 2, 2026

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19 min read

The wage trap, explained

$952B in interest. 28 years of postwar inflation. The full mechanism breakdown.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

The Market Priced In Cuts. It's Getting Hikes.

Apr 27, 2026

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9 min read

The Market Priced In Cuts. It's Getting Hikes.

Weekend Iran talks, April 30 GDP + PCE, mega-cap earnings, and Powell's last FOMC. All in ten days.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Apr 20, 2026

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8 min read

All-Time Highs in a Stagflation

The IRGC reopened fire. The market didn't flinch. Something has to give.

Debyn Benjamin

Macroeconomics

Why Central Banks Are Dumping Treasuries

Apr 18, 2026

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15 min read

Why Central Banks Are Dumping Treasuries

Central banks bought 4,000 tonnes in three years. The data shows where it's going.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Apr 13, 2026

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11 min read

Markets Rallied on a Dead Thesis

CPI at 3.3%. Hormuz still closed. The market priced in a deal that just died.

Debyn Benjamin

Fiscal Policy

Oil Just Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

The College Degree Just Became a Bad Trade

Consumer Prices Just Fell. The Fed Still Wants Hikes.

Stocks Now Cost 191% of The Economy

The End of Cheap: Why the Price Level Is Not Coming Back

Hiring just fell to 57,000

Inflation just hit 4.1%

The Ceasefire Doesn't End the Squeeze

The Strait Reopens. Inflation Stays.

Europe's Central Bank Is Cornered

A Nine-Week Win Streak Just Snapped.

Japan Just Broke the Global Bond Market

Stocks No Longer Beat Bonds.

Why Bond Yields Aren't Falling

Hormuz Memo. Two Regime Exits.

The Petrodollar Myth: Why the Dollar Doesn’t Need Oil Anymore

Fed Says Hold. Curve Says Hike.

How Oil Shocks Reach Your Portfolio

Bonds Are Pricing Hikes. Stocks Are Pricing Perfection.

The Petrodollar Reset — How the Gulf Chose Dollar Deepening Over Yuan Settlement

The wage trap, explained

The Market Priced In Cuts. It's Getting Hikes.

All-Time Highs in a Stagflation

Why Central Banks Are Dumping Treasuries

Markets Rallied on a Dead Thesis

Benjamin Capital Research