Fiscal Policy

Analysis of government spending, debt dynamics, tariff policy, and fiscal sustainability impacting markets and the macro outlook.

Weekly SitRep

Jun 1, 2026

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6 min read

Stocks No Longer Beat Bonds.

First negative equity risk premium since the dot-com era, and insiders kept selling.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

May 29, 2026

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19 min read

Why Bond Yields Aren't Falling

Europe just committed €800 billion to rearm. Bond markets noticed.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

May 25, 2026

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8 min read

Hormuz Memo. Two Regime Exits.

Hottest PCE on record. One page in Pakistan decides Q3.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

The Petrodollar Myth: Why the Dollar Doesn’t Need Oil Anymore

May 23, 2026

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25 min read

The Petrodollar Myth: Why the Dollar Doesn’t Need Oil Anymore

The Real Moats Hiding in Plain Sight, the Russia Stress Test, and Where the Dollar Actually Breaks

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

May 18, 2026

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9 min read

Fed Says Hold. Curve Says Hike.

Inflation at all-time highs. Warsh just took the chair.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

May 16, 2026

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15 min read

How Oil Shocks Reach Your Portfolio

The buffers are expiring. Stage 2 starts now.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Bonds Are Pricing Hikes. Stocks Are Pricing Perfection.

May 11, 2026

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8 min read

Bonds Are Pricing Hikes. Stocks Are Pricing Perfection.

Reflation at 88%. The most decisive regime call since the system went live.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

The Petrodollar Reset — How the Gulf Chose Dollar Deepening Over Yuan Settlement

May 9, 2026

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23 min read

The Petrodollar Reset — How the Gulf Chose Dollar Deepening Over Yuan Settlement

China lost a 10-year bet

Debyn Benjamin

Macroeconomics

May 2, 2026

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19 min read

The wage trap, explained

$952B in interest. 28 years of postwar inflation. The full mechanism breakdown.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

The Market Priced In Cuts. It's Getting Hikes.

Apr 27, 2026

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9 min read

The Market Priced In Cuts. It's Getting Hikes.

Weekend Iran talks, April 30 GDP + PCE, mega-cap earnings, and Powell's last FOMC. All in ten days.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Apr 20, 2026

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8 min read

All-Time Highs in a Stagflation

The IRGC reopened fire. The market didn't flinch. Something has to give.

Debyn Benjamin

Macroeconomics

Why Central Banks Are Dumping Treasuries

Apr 18, 2026

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15 min read

Why Central Banks Are Dumping Treasuries

Central banks bought 4,000 tonnes in three years. The data shows where it's going.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Apr 13, 2026

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11 min read

Markets Rallied on a Dead Thesis

CPI at 3.3%. Hormuz still closed. The market priced in a deal that just died.

Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

Apr 11, 2026

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21 min read

Brent Hit $144. Here's What Broke.

Negative equity risk premium. Spreads lagging fundamentals. No cushion left.

Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

Apr 6, 2026

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10 min read

Smart Money Just Picked a Side

Gold at extremes. Equities at all-time lows. The rotation is decisive.

Debyn Benjamin

Macroeconomics

Apr 4, 2026

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13 min read

America's 8:1 Balance Sheet Crisis

The Deficit Doom Loop, Failing Auctions, and the Petroyuan Threat

Debyn Benjamin

Fiscal Policy

The 150-Day Fiscal Cliff: SCOTUS Kills IEEPA Tariffs, Section 122 Creates a Worse Trap

Mar 21, 2026

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30 min read

The 150-Day Fiscal Cliff: SCOTUS Kills IEEPA Tariffs, Section 122 Creates a Worse Trap

When the Supreme Court invalidates emergency tariffs, the pivot to a 150-day emergency measure creates a hard policy cliff that freezes business investment, accelerates consumer credit stress, and forces the Fed into an impossible position by July 24.

Debyn Benjamin

Fiscal Policy

Stocks No Longer Beat Bonds.

Why Bond Yields Aren't Falling

Hormuz Memo. Two Regime Exits.

The Petrodollar Myth: Why the Dollar Doesn’t Need Oil Anymore

Fed Says Hold. Curve Says Hike.

How Oil Shocks Reach Your Portfolio

Bonds Are Pricing Hikes. Stocks Are Pricing Perfection.

The Petrodollar Reset — How the Gulf Chose Dollar Deepening Over Yuan Settlement

The wage trap, explained

The Market Priced In Cuts. It's Getting Hikes.

All-Time Highs in a Stagflation

Why Central Banks Are Dumping Treasuries

Markets Rallied on a Dead Thesis

Brent Hit $144. Here's What Broke.

Smart Money Just Picked a Side

America's 8:1 Balance Sheet Crisis

The 150-Day Fiscal Cliff: SCOTUS Kills IEEPA Tariffs, Section 122 Creates a Worse Trap

Benjamin Capital Research