Credit Markets
+3
Jun 13, 2026
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13 min read
Energy-driven inflation, a contracting economy, and the oil floor that stops the ECB from waiting it out
Weekly SitRep
+6
Jun 8, 2026
7 min read
Payrolls doubled the forecast, and the curve flipped to a hike by December.
Jun 1, 2026
6 min read
First negative equity risk premium since the dot-com era, and insiders kept selling.
May 25, 2026
8 min read
Hottest PCE on record. One page in Pakistan decides Q3.
+5
May 23, 2026
25 min read
The Real Moats Hiding in Plain Sight, the Russia Stress Test, and Where the Dollar Actually Breaks
May 18, 2026
9 min read
Inflation at all-time highs. Warsh just took the chair.
May 16, 2026
15 min read
The buffers are expiring. Stage 2 starts now.
+8
May 11, 2026
Reflation at 88%. The most decisive regime call since the system went live.
May 9, 2026
23 min read
China lost a 10-year bet
Macroeconomics
May 2, 2026
19 min read
$952B in interest. 28 years of postwar inflation. The full mechanism breakdown.
+7
Apr 27, 2026
Weekend Iran talks, April 30 GDP + PCE, mega-cap earnings, and Powell's last FOMC. All in ten days.
+2
Apr 25, 2026
20 min read
Full breakdown: fertilizer, cattle, acreage, and the Q3 re-acceleration.
Apr 18, 2026
Central banks bought 4,000 tonnes in three years. The data shows where it's going.
Apr 13, 2026
11 min read
CPI at 3.3%. Hormuz still closed. The market priced in a deal that just died.
Apr 11, 2026
21 min read
Negative equity risk premium. Spreads lagging fundamentals. No cushion left.
Apr 6, 2026
10 min read
Gold at extremes. Equities at all-time lows. The rotation is decisive.
Apr 4, 2026
The Deficit Doom Loop, Failing Auctions, and the Petroyuan Threat
Labor Market
Mar 28, 2026
14 min read
The gig economy safety net has a ceiling
Mar 22, 2026
March 22, 2026
Mar 15, 2026
How Three Fund Crises Expose the Hidden Bank Connection
