Weekly SitRep
+6
Jul 27, 2026
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9 min read
A reflation regime twelve weeks old, a front end at a seventeen-month high, and a tariff schedule that just became permanent.
Credit Markets
+4
Jul 25, 2026
17 min read
The same credential now sorts households into winners and wealth transfers.
Macroeconomics
Jul 22, 2026
12 min read
The 27% correction, the fastest quarter of central-bank buying in over a year, and the reserve crossover that just became official.
Jul 20, 2026
6 min read
A reflation regime eleven weeks old, a runner-up that just flipped to disinflation, and a 30-year yield through 5 percent.
Geopolitics
Jul 18, 2026
16 min read
The five-year assembly win, the decade-long climb underneath it, and the tariff wedge that has already closed.
Jul 13, 2026
A regime nine weeks old, a 30-year yield walking toward 5 percent, and a valuation with no cushion left.
Inflation
+5
Jul 11, 2026
11 min read
The 25-Year Disinflation Reversal, the Tariff Floor, and the Fiscal Trap That Ties the Fed's Hands
Jul 6, 2026
A labor market that just stumbled, an inflation backdrop that hasn't, and a market setting records while it buys protection.
Jul 4, 2026
The Refining Monopoly, the 2025 Weaponization, and the Math Behind a Failing 2030 Target
Jun 29, 2026
A hot PCE print, a fraying oil truce, and the AI memory tax reaching consumers.
Jun 27, 2026
22 min read
Why markets are right about the event and wrong about the regime
Jun 22, 2026
A hawkish Fed, an oil truce already fraying, and a market still pricing calm.
Jun 20, 2026
24 min read
How a 60-day diplomatic clock, a 120-day SPR delivery window, and OECD inventories at multi-decade lows converge on the same week
Jun 15, 2026
7 min read
The market booked relief the physical market can't deliver for months.
+3
Jun 13, 2026
13 min read
Energy-driven inflation, a contracting economy, and the oil floor that stops the ECB from waiting it out
Jun 8, 2026
Payrolls doubled the forecast, and the curve flipped to a hike by December.
Jun 1, 2026
First negative equity risk premium since the dot-com era, and insiders kept selling.
May 25, 2026
8 min read
Hottest PCE on record. One page in Pakistan decides Q3.
May 23, 2026
25 min read
The Real Moats Hiding in Plain Sight, the Russia Stress Test, and Where the Dollar Actually Breaks
May 18, 2026
Inflation at all-time highs. Warsh just took the chair.
May 16, 2026
15 min read
The buffers are expiring. Stage 2 starts now.
+8
May 11, 2026
Reflation at 88%. The most decisive regime call since the system went live.
May 9, 2026
23 min read
China lost a 10-year bet
May 2, 2026
19 min read
$952B in interest. 28 years of postwar inflation. The full mechanism breakdown.
+7
Apr 27, 2026
Weekend Iran talks, April 30 GDP + PCE, mega-cap earnings, and Powell's last FOMC. All in ten days.
