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Federal Reserve

Weekly SitRep

+6

Oil Just Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

Jul 27, 2026

•

9 min read

Oil Just Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

A reflation regime twelve weeks old, a front end at a seventeen-month high, and a tariff schedule that just became permanent.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Macroeconomics

+4

Gold Fell 27%. Central Banks Kept Buying.

Jul 22, 2026

•

12 min read

Gold Fell 27%. Central Banks Kept Buying.

The 27% correction, the fastest quarter of central-bank buying in over a year, and the reserve crossover that just became official.

Weekly SitRep

+6

Consumer Prices Just Fell. The Fed Still Wants Hikes.

Jul 20, 2026

•

6 min read

Consumer Prices Just Fell. The Fed Still Wants Hikes.

A reflation regime eleven weeks old, a runner-up that just flipped to disinflation, and a 30-year yield through 5 percent.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+6

Stocks Now Cost 191% of The Economy

Jul 13, 2026

•

6 min read

Stocks Now Cost 191% of The Economy

A regime nine weeks old, a 30-year yield walking toward 5 percent, and a valuation with no cushion left.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Inflation

+5

The End of Cheap: Why the Price Level Is Not Coming Back

Jul 11, 2026

•

11 min read

The End of Cheap: Why the Price Level Is Not Coming Back

The 25-Year Disinflation Reversal, the Tariff Floor, and the Fiscal Trap That Ties the Fed's Hands

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+6

Hiring just fell to 57,000

Jul 6, 2026

•

9 min read

Hiring just fell to 57,000

A labor market that just stumbled, an inflation backdrop that hasn't, and a market setting records while it buys protection.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+6

Inflation just hit 4.1%

Jun 29, 2026

•

9 min read

Inflation just hit 4.1%

A hot PCE print, a fraying oil truce, and the AI memory tax reaching consumers.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+5

Rate-hike odds just hit 85%

Jun 22, 2026

•

9 min read

Rate-hike odds just hit 85%

A hawkish Fed, an oil truce already fraying, and a market still pricing calm.

Credit Markets

+5

The Ceasefire Doesn't End the Squeeze

Jun 20, 2026

•

24 min read

The Ceasefire Doesn't End the Squeeze

How a 60-day diplomatic clock, a 120-day SPR delivery window, and OECD inventories at multi-decade lows converge on the same week

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+6

The Strait Reopens. Inflation Stays.

Jun 15, 2026

•

7 min read

The Strait Reopens. Inflation Stays.

The market booked relief the physical market can't deliver for months.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+6

A Nine-Week Win Streak Just Snapped.

Jun 8, 2026

•

7 min read

A Nine-Week Win Streak Just Snapped.

Payrolls doubled the forecast, and the curve flipped to a hike by December.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+6

Stocks No Longer Beat Bonds.

Jun 1, 2026

•

6 min read

Stocks No Longer Beat Bonds.

First negative equity risk premium since the dot-com era, and insiders kept selling.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+6

Hormuz Memo. Two Regime Exits.

May 25, 2026

•

8 min read

Hormuz Memo. Two Regime Exits.

Hottest PCE on record. One page in Pakistan decides Q3.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

+5

The Petrodollar Myth: Why the Dollar Doesn’t Need Oil Anymore

May 23, 2026

•

25 min read

The Petrodollar Myth: Why the Dollar Doesn’t Need Oil Anymore

The Real Moats Hiding in Plain Sight, the Russia Stress Test, and Where the Dollar Actually Breaks

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+6

Fed Says Hold. Curve Says Hike.

May 18, 2026

•

9 min read

Fed Says Hold. Curve Says Hike.

Inflation at all-time highs. Warsh just took the chair.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

+6

How Oil Shocks Reach Your Portfolio

May 16, 2026

•

15 min read

How Oil Shocks Reach Your Portfolio

The buffers are expiring. Stage 2 starts now.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+8

Bonds Are Pricing Hikes. Stocks Are Pricing Perfection.

May 11, 2026

•

8 min read

Bonds Are Pricing Hikes. Stocks Are Pricing Perfection.

Reflation at 88%. The most decisive regime call since the system went live.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+7

The Market Priced In Cuts. It's Getting Hikes.

Apr 27, 2026

•

9 min read

The Market Priced In Cuts. It's Getting Hikes.

Weekend Iran talks, April 30 GDP + PCE, mega-cap earnings, and Powell's last FOMC. All in ten days.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+4

All-Time Highs in a Stagflation

Apr 20, 2026

•

8 min read

All-Time Highs in a Stagflation

The IRGC reopened fire. The market didn't flinch. Something has to give.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Macroeconomics

+5

Why Central Banks Are Dumping Treasuries

Apr 18, 2026

•

15 min read

Why Central Banks Are Dumping Treasuries

Central banks bought 4,000 tonnes in three years. The data shows where it's going.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Credit Markets

+7

Brent Hit $144. Here's What Broke.

Apr 11, 2026

•

21 min read

Brent Hit $144. Here's What Broke.

Negative equity risk premium. Spreads lagging fundamentals. No cushion left.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Weekly SitRep

+2

Weekly Macro Sitrep — Stagflation vs Tightening Stress

Mar 22, 2026

•

9 min read

Weekly Macro Sitrep — Stagflation vs Tightening Stress

March 22, 2026

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Fiscal Policy

+2

The 150-Day Fiscal Cliff: SCOTUS Kills IEEPA Tariffs, Section 122 Creates a Worse Trap

Mar 21, 2026

•

30 min read

The 150-Day Fiscal Cliff: SCOTUS Kills IEEPA Tariffs, Section 122 Creates a Worse Trap

When the Supreme Court invalidates emergency tariffs, the pivot to a 150-day emergency measure creates a hard policy cliff that freezes business investment, accelerates consumer credit stress, and forces the Fed into an impossible position by July 24.

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Macroeconomics

+5

Private Credit: The $2 Trillion Stress Test No One Ran

Mar 15, 2026

•

20 min read

Private Credit: The $2 Trillion Stress Test No One Ran

How Three Fund Crises Expose the Hidden Bank Connection

Debyn Benjamin
Debyn Benjamin

Benjamin Capital Research

For educational and informational purposes only. Nothing published here constitutes investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. All positioning commentary reflects historical patterns and educational analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

© 2026 Benjamin Capital Research.
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